Home sales across Denton County have fallen to volumes not seen since 2017, adding pressure on Flower Mound homeowners already dealing with a shrinking local tax base.
Aaron Layman, a licensed Denton County real estate broker who writes a market commentary column for the Denton Record-Chronicle, reported Tuesday, Aug. 18, that transaction volumes across all four major DFW counties have retreated to levels last seen years ago. Dallas County is back to 2012 levels. Tarrant County sits at 2013. Collin County has slid to 2020.
Denton County's 2017-level performance is actually the strongest of the four, but the numbers still represent a sharp pullback from the pandemic-era boom. Resale inventory in the Denton area has doubled, Layman wrote, and sellers hoping to fetch 2023 or 2024 prices face a different reality.
"Builders are throwing out massive incentives and rate buydowns just to get buyers to qualify," Layman wrote in his Aug. 18 column. "If you are trying to sell an existing home in a tough market, this is what you are competing against."
National builders signal the strain
The two largest U.S. homebuilders underscore the affordability squeeze. D.R. Horton reported an average closing price of $362,000 for its fiscal third quarter ended June 30, down 2% year over year, according to its earnings release. The Arlington-based builder's cancellation rate climbed to 20%, up from 17% a year earlier.
Executive Chairman David Auld said the company expects sales incentives to remain elevated during the fourth quarter, citing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment.
Lennar, the No. 2 builder nationally, posted an average selling price of $371,000 in its most recent quarter. Layman's column pegged Lennar's per-home incentive spending at $47,000, a figure not independently confirmed in Lennar's public filings.
Flower Mound feels the ripple
The slowdown has already registered on Flower Mound's books. The town's property tax base fell for the first time in 15 years during fiscal year 2025-26, declining roughly 2% from the prior year's certified roll. Mayor Cheryl Moore attributed the drop to a lack of new development and home sales, citing high interest rates and economic uncertainty, according to a Flower Mound Bee report published June 12.
Flower Mound CFO John Zagurski said in that same report that his fiscal outlook "rapidly changed" during July 2025 because "we saw things change that had never happened before in the history of the town," referring to stagnant sales tax and declining property tax revenues tied to fewer home sales and new builds.
Renters benefit, for now
On the rental side, new apartment complexes in Denton County are dangling 8 to 10 weeks of free rent to attract tenants, a sign of elevated supply after five consecutive years of rising building permits fueled by nearly 20% population growth since 2020. Layman wrote that the rent-versus-buy equation in North Texas currently favors renting.
D.R. Horton's next quarterly earnings are scheduled for Oct. 29. Lennar reports Sept. 17. Both will offer the next data points on whether builder incentives are stabilizing or climbing further.
