Democrat James Talarico has won the Texas U.S. Senate race, defeating Republican Ken Paxton, the Associated Press called late Tuesday, Nov. 3.

The AP called the race at approximately 10:04 p.m., with Talarico leading with 59.4% of the vote, Houston Public Media reported. Talarico is the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas since 1994 and the first Democrat elected to a Texas U.S. Senate seat since 1988, according to KCRA, citing AP.

Results remain unofficial until certified by the Texas Secretary of State.

Denton County in the spotlight

Denton County, home to Flower Mound and Highland Village, was one of the suburban counties analysts watched closely on election night. The Texas Tribune identified Denton and neighboring Collin County as bellwethers that in recent elections have voted close to the statewide result. In 2024, President Donald Trump carried Denton County by about 13 percentage points.

The Texan labeled Collin and Denton counties "The Deciders," noting that in 2024, Ted Cruz won about 53% in Denton County, close to his 53% statewide. Partial returns on election night showed the county swinging sharply toward Talarico, though final certified totals are not yet available.

Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties together accounted for close to 16% of the statewide vote in 2024, according to the Texas Tribune. All three were in play for both parties heading into the midterms.

What's at stake

The race could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate for the final two years of Trump's term. Republicans held a 53-47 advantage going into the election. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, according to Fox 4.

More than $570 million in political advertising made this the most expensive Senate race in American history, according to the Dallas Morning News, citing ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Record turnout

More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, in person or by mail, through the state's 12-day early voting period, the Texas Tribune reported. That amounted to 40.5% of registered voters, the highest midterm early-turnout rate on record in modern-day Texas. The state entered the election with more than 19 million registered voters, a new state record, according to the Texas Secretary of State.

The candidates

Paxton, the three-term state attorney general, defeated incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a May 2026 Republican primary runoff after receiving an endorsement from Trump. He has served as attorney general since 2015.

Talarico, a four-term state representative from Austin, is a former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian. He led Paxton by a wide margin in fundraising for most of the year, though conservative super PACs offset that advantage with heavy spending in the campaign's final months, Houston Public Media reported.

Libertarian Ted Brown and several write-in candidates also appeared on the ballot.

Official results from the Texas Secretary of State will continue to be updated as counties report.